The purpose of this entry is to recap where we have been and to provide a general outline for where we are going. Everyone ending up on this blog page should be aware of the purpose of the PSPAP v. 2.0 project, but to make sure we are all on the same page, here is the objective:

Provide essential population-level information needed for the Missouri River Recovery Project to achieve its fundamental objectives.

The fundamental objective of the MRRP (related to pallid sturgeon) is:

Avoid jeopardizing the continued existence of the pallid sturgeon from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers actions on the Missouri River.

The fundamental objective is accompanied by two sub-objectives:

1. Increase pallid sturgeon recruitment to age 1.
2. Maintain or increase numbers of pallid sturgeon as an interim measure until sufficient and sustained natural recruitment occurs.

The Missouri River Recovery Program Integrated Science Program (MRRP-ISP) has tasked the Effects Analysis team to develop options to make the PSPAP more explicitly relevant to decision making under the Missouri River Science and Adaptive Management Plan (MRSAMP), specifically to link population metrics and processes to management actions.

To accomplish this, we have started on a process that involves soliciting input from involved agencies and experts, followed by simulation of alternative designs to meet monitoring objectives. We recognize that priorities in monitoring objectives will vary considerably and our emphasis is on evaluating benefits and costs of a range of (ancillary) objectives that may complement the core MRRP objectives. The anticipated schedule is:

• March 21, 2017: Workshop
  • Refine objectives hierarchy
  • Develop logistical information (sampling parameters) to support modeling.
• Spring 2017 - Fall 2017: Model scenarios - explore approaches to meeting objectives, mix of methods, benefit: cost of ancillary objectives.
  • EA team (Colvin and Reynolds) will engage with (willing) participants to refine parameters of sample designs, elicit reality checks.
• Late Fall 2017: Webinar to present results to agencies, participants.
• December 2017: Deliver draft PSPAP v. 2.0 sample-design report.
• Spring 2018 implement agency-vetted design on a pilot basis.
  • Spring - Fall 2018 revise, refine models
  • Finalize design, finalize draft sample design report.
• Spring 2019 Implement PSPAP v. 2.0.

At this point in time (June 2017) the team is involved in developing and running scenario simulations, and it is likely that workshop participants will be contacted to refine some of the cost estimates. The objective of this blog is to provide another pathway for participants to keep track of team progress and to provide additional input.

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